New Seat Details - Edinburgh South

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Edinburgh South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	22,655	37.9%
CON	17,948	30.0%
SNP	16,405	27.4%
LIB	2,836	4.7%
LAB Majority	4,707	7.9%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Edinburgh South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Edinburgh South

Old seat: Edinburgh East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Edinburgh	City Centre	5,172	Edinburgh East; Edinburgh North and Leith	1,365	1,319	242	0	0	1,937	0	0	4,863
Edinburgh	Craigentinny / Duddingston	18,777	Edinburgh East	1,933	4,038	452	0	0	5,263	0	0	11,686
Edinburgh	Leith	5,133	Edinburgh East	437	992	169	0	0	1,651	0	0	3,249
Edinburgh	Leith Walk	3,253	Edinburgh East	324	1,054	107	0	0	1,181	0	0	2,666
Edinburgh	Liberton / Gilmerton	191	Edinburgh East	19	41	4	0	0	46	0	0	110
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	2,009	Edinburgh South	520	388	112	0	0	603	0	0	1,623
Edinburgh	Portobello / Craigmillar	18,025	Edinburgh East	1,506	5,074	226	0	0	4,802	0	0	11,608
Edinburgh	Southside / Newington	7,983	Edinburgh South	1,978	2,179	536	0	0	3,028	0	0	7,721
	Total	60,543		8,082	15,085	1,848	0	0	18,511	0	0	43,526

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Edinburgh	Colinton / Fairmilehead	6,352	Edinburgh South	1,401	1,904	66	0	0	853	0	0	4,224
Edinburgh	Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart	1,794	Edinburgh South	268	847	54	0	0	388	0	0	1,557
Edinburgh	Liberton / Gilmerton	23,453	Edinburgh East	2,360	10,702	379	0	0	4,969	0	0	18,410
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	17,539	Edinburgh South	3,727	7,622	570	0	0	2,691	0	0	14,610
Edinburgh	Portobello / Craigmillar	1	Edinburgh East	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Edinburgh	Southside / Newington	11,070	Edinburgh South	1,671	5,193	319	0	0	1,853	0	0	9,036
	Total	60,209		9,427	26,268	1,388	0	0	10,754	0	0	47,837

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh South West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Edinburgh	City Centre	743	Edinburgh North and Leith	256	171	45	0	0	255	0	0	727
Edinburgh	Colinton / Fairmilehead	12,238	Edinburgh South	4,239	1,306	277	0	0	2,493	0	0	8,315
Edinburgh	Corstorphine / Murrayfield	576	Edinburgh West	176	85	35	0	0	163	0	0	459
Edinburgh	Drum Brae / Gyle	350	Edinburgh West	77	59	18	0	0	91	0	0	245
Edinburgh	Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart	15,109	Edinburgh South	3,254	2,755	703	0	0	3,834	0	0	10,546
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	2,490	Edinburgh South	890	461	199	0	0	662	0	0	2,212
Edinburgh	Pentland Hills	15,310	Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland	4,010	2,551	405	0	0	3,903	0	0	10,869
Edinburgh	Sighthill / Gorgie	19,665	Edinburgh West; Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland	3,576	5,826	443	0	0	6,175	0	0	16,020
	Total	66,481		16,478	13,214	2,125	0	0	17,576	0	0	49,393

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Edinburgh South

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Edinburgh South
Edinburgh	Colinton / Fairmilehead	5,699	Edinburgh South	1,401	1,904	66	0	0	853	0	0	4,224
Edinburgh	Colinton / Fairmilehead	11,982	Edinburgh South West	4,239	1,306	277	0	0	2,493	0	0	8,315
Edinburgh	Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart	2,102	Edinburgh South	268	847	54	0	0	388	0	0	1,557
Edinburgh	Fountainbridge / Craiglockhart	15,197	Edinburgh South West	3,254	2,755	703	0	0	3,834	0	0	10,546
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	2,457	Edinburgh East	520	388	112	0	0	603	0	0	1,623
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	19,714	Edinburgh South	3,727	7,622	570	0	0	2,691	0	0	14,610
Edinburgh	Meadows / Morningside	3,188	Edinburgh South West	890	461	199	0	0	662	0	0	2,212
Edinburgh	Southside / Newington	11,690	Edinburgh East	1,978	2,179	536	0	0	3,028	0	0	7,721
Edinburgh	Southside / Newington	12,194	Edinburgh South	1,671	5,193	319	0	0	1,853	0	0	9,036
	Total	84,223		17,948	22,655	2,836	0	0	16,405	0	0	59,844

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Edinburgh South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ian Murray (LAB)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	84,223
Turnout:	71.1%

Edinburgh South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Edinburgh South: Overview

Introduction